Global grain markets remain on weather watch as current conditions in the US remain favourable but talk of declining crop estimates from other key exporters continues to support values, according to ADM Agriculture’s latest assessment.
The US market has reached its highest level since mid-April, with recent purchases of soya bean and corn by China, and rumours of additional wheat deals, adding to the positive sentiment and igniting fresh speculative buying.
“The resulting surge in global prices has driven UK new crop values higher, as has a weaker pound due to ongoing Brexit talks and the release of negative economic data,” said Jonathan Lane, ADM Agriculture’s head of grain trading.
“UK ex-farm sales have slowed notably over the past weeks. With the bulk of the wheat harvest still a few weeks away, delivery premiums remain supported.
“Looking in more detail at some key crop estimates, weather forecasts remain favourable for the development and yield potential of US spring crops, with the corn crop entering its key pollination stage.”
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry puts its 2020 grain crop at 122.5 Mt, including 75 Mt of wheat. Grain exports for the 2020/21 marketing season are projected slightly lower than a month ago at 43 Mt.
“The Ministry has confirmed its intention to purchase 2.5-3.5 Mt of grain for its new state stockpile, but says nothing will be bought before 1 July 2021,” explained Lane.
“Ukraine had harvested 6.3 Mt of grain from 1.9M-ha as of 9 July, including 2.9 Mt of wheat and 3 Mt of barley. The country’s Agriculture Ministry is forecasting a 2020 grain crop of at least 68 Mt, well below last season’s record 75.1 Mt.
“Strategie Grains trimmed its estimates of this season’s EU soft wheat crop to 130.3 Mt, compared with its June forecast of 130.9 Mt and last season’s 147.2 Mt.
“Germany’s 2020 wheat harvest will fall 2.6% compared with last year to 22.5 Mt, according to the country’s association of farm cooperatives.”
Lane concluded: “Egypt’s state buyer GASC purchased a further 114,000t of Russian wheat in its latest international tender, as the country continues to shore up its domestic harvest.”