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Price direction expected after India tender

India’s latest fertiliser tender, which closes on Friday (8 May), is believed to exceed 1 Mt, rather than the 750,000t previously stated.

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According to Calum Findlay, head of fertiliser at ADM Agriculture, the tender is expected to set some near-term price direction for granular urea at a time when Europe is entering the buying season.

 

“Global cost and freight levels are around US$230/t, making China’s urea exports uncompetitive, given the country’s domestic pricing,” he said in ADM’s latest market report, published today.

 

“North African and Middle Eastern urea supplies are likely to play a part, helping to clear current stock and add some support to prices.

 

“Natural gas prices have now risen to January levels, which will also help underpin values.”

 

Sterling rates against the euro and US dollar are set to be volatile over the next few months. “This will have impacts on new season urea and ammonium nitrate (AN) prices, as new cargoes are bought to fill vacant port-side storage,” said Findlay.

 

“European 33.5% AN values for June are reportedly too high for some inland markets, but are attracting buyers in western Europe.

 

“UK AN prices have remained stable for the sixth consecutive week on the back of higher-than-usual spring demand. These prices are not anticipated to change through May due to support from the after-cut market,” he concluded.

 

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