The October USDA report released on Thursday (11th Oct) brought some surprises, according to Jonathan Lane, trading director at Gleadell.
“We expected to see a big jump in US soya bean carryout, but the USDA blindsided us all with a cut in forecast harvested acres.
“Whilst yields were raised, the overall net effect was negligible, and allowed USDA to keep the carryout figure in the US below 24.5Mt Mt, when many were looking at 27+ Mt.
“This allowed the market to find some support, but with an increase in the global carryout figure and the ongoing trade issues between US and China, it is difficult to sustain a rally without some change in US/China relations.
“Old crop rapeseed futures prices in Europe have been lacklustre, with little engagement from both sides of the market.”
Crop conditions in Australia point to a significant year-on-year decline in production, with many now suggesting the crop will struggle to be much above 2 Mt. In Canada, harvest continues to be adversely affected by rain and snow, and the crop is also going backwards.
In Europe, the focus has been on the dry weather and poor crop establishment. “We have heard anecdotal evidence suggesting the crops in France and Germany could fall by a combined 1 Mt,” said Lane. “With the additional impact of flea beetle, the UK harvested area could be down by as much as 20-25%.
“On paper the global rapeseed market looks supported, but rapeseed is part of a much wider global vegetable oil complex that will be led by the soya market, which is fair from straightforward.”